Upstate Real Estate Market: Resilience, Interest Rates, and Trends According to Secovi-SP and SindusCon-SP

Secovi-SP and SindusCon-SP joint data shows interior São Paulo maintains active demand, totaling R$ 20 billion in PSV in the half. Although vertical launches fell 12% pressured by a 13.50% Selic rate and tax reform, the horizontal segment grew 44% driven by MCMV, confirming resilience and a young inventory waiting for macroeconomic stability.

Key insights on the real estate landscape in upstate São Paulo

The unprecedented integration between Secovi-SP and SindusCon-SP in their quarterly market survey consolidated a comprehensive overview of 42 cities across upstate São Paulo and the Baixada Santista coastline. The survey combined historical indicators for vertical launches with a new database of horizontal developments structured alongside Brain Inteligência Estratégica.

Even in the face of a challenging macroeconomic environment, with the Selic rate projected at 13.50% by year-end and no expectation of a drop toward 10% until 2026, real estate demand demonstrated strong resilience. The sector operates with keen attention to discussions surrounding tax reform and production costs, maintaining caution regarding the pace of new market launches.

Practical criteria for evaluating vertical and horizontal developments

In the vertical segment, first-half data indicated a 12% decline in launches, while sales volume dropped by only 3%, reaching a Potential Sales Value (PSV) of approximately R$ 20 billion against a Potential Launch Value (PLV) between R$ 15 billion and R$ 16 billion. The average vertical unit price stood at R$ 637 thousand, recording a decrease in the share of affordable Minha Casa, Minha Vida units from 56% to 49%.

In contrast to the vertical trend, horizontal launches registered a significant 44% growth in the semester, driven by the expansion of affordable units, which jumped from 2,115 to 4,823 units. This movement created a qualified and recent inventory, in which 90% of the 5,939 available units were launched within the last 30 months.

Pricing per square meter in horizontal projects reflects notable regional variations, ranging from R$ 9.1 thousand in Presidente Prudente to R$ 11.7 thousand in the Baixada Santista. Concurrently, the IGMI-R index points to continuous appreciation of around 12% per year in property prices, demonstrating the end consumer’s capacity to absorb price adjustments.

Next steps for project decisions and commercial positioning

For developers and builders with products ready for launch, the current moment demands precise product validation and an assertive commercial strategy. Clear visual communication, supported by 3D architectural renderings, styled floor plans, and photorealistic archviz models, becomes essential to highlight architectural differentiators and accelerate sales cycles before new inventory enters the market.

Defining the typology mix between mid-market developments and subsidized housing programs must take into account the dynamics of each regional market in the interior, optimizing costs and ensuring commercial appeal amidst stricter mortgage underwriting standards.